According to a recent article by the folks at John Burns Real Estate Consulting, “Florida’s Housing Market is Booming”
In their most recent review of the Florida real estate market they noted that both demand and prices were increasing in:
- moderately priced communities,
- active adult communities, and
- luxury golf-course projects
Realtors that I have spoken with have been telling me the same for months, but I’m sometimes reluctant to believe what they are telling me. But after reading this, I believe it may be true.
If you were waiting for the market to reach the bottom, its probably safe to say that it has.
Of course, this doesn’t mean the same trends can be seen in each and every market in Florida.
Popular and fast growing places like The Villages certainly pick up a lot of the slack, as evidenced by the more than 2,300 new home sales last year alone.
Cause for Concern?
Despite the positives mentioned above, the article also notes what it calls a disturbing trend in job formation:
Florida currently has the slowest year-over-year payroll employment growth of any region in the nation. Of the 20 metropolitan areas in Florida we analyze, 12 of them are now experiencing year-over-year job losses.
“Twilight in Florida”
(Note: The article was previously “iPad only” but it looks like they’ve now put the article up on their site for all to see.)
In the article, the author contrasts the success of communities like The Villages with the plight of other parts of Florida where the future does not seem so bright. One issue I have with the article is that it fails to mention that there are plenty of places in between these two extremes.
Besides highlighting the current extremes you can find in the Florida market, the main point the author is trying to make is that the influx of the Boomer crowd to Florida over the next several years will leave the state unprepared for the changes this will bring.
One economist calls it a coming “demographic train wreck”. But, this is not just a Florida problem. It is a national problem.
The article aims to have you believe that Florida is alone in this, but the truth is buried in the article when the same economist says:
Right now in the U.S., four working age adults support each retiree. In 20 years, that ratio will slip to three to one nationally — and two to one in Florida.
As I mentioned in the comment I left on the article, an important thing to consider is that the influx of Boomers over the next few years should work to slow or even reverse the trend of skilled workers fleeing for greener pastures. Many if not most Boomers are bringing considerable funds with them to Florida, and history tells us that workers of every skill level tend to go where the money is. It (the money) might not be everywhere in FL today, but signs point to it being here soon.
Let me know what you think in the comments below.
In my recent visits to the Naples-Fort Myers area, I have seen some promising signs of growth. The beaches are crowded, there has been some resumption in building (both commercial and residential), and people seem somewhat more upbeat. However, as everywhere else, this is going to be a slow and incremental recovery. Things are getting better, I believe.
Agree with you 100% Mark. Thanks for sharing your thoughts.